Showing posts with label Earthquake. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Earthquake. Show all posts

Monday, June 29, 2015

Seven Facts About The Landers Earthquake

THE HOT MOJAVE DESERT IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY - Little earthquakes, many of them very little earthquakes, shake Southern California everyday. However, it was on June 28, 1992, on which the largest county in the lower 48 states was the epicenter of the largest earthquake in California in about 40 years. Though not a lot of spectacular, memorable damage was done, there were a lot of lessons learned from this earthquake.

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Probably the most noticeable damage following the 1992 earthquake was this bowling alley in Yucca Valley. Photograph taken by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and in public domain.

Waking Southern California up on a Sunday morning at 4:57 a.m. in the very busy year of 1992 here are seven interesting facts about the earthquake commonly known as, "The Landers Earthquake."

1 - It Still Remains The Last Largest Earthquake In California

It has been over 20 years and the Landers Earthquake was, according to the moment magnitude scale (M), a M7.3 earthquake, and (as of this writing) retains the record as being the last large earthquake, by way of magnitude, to hit California. Prior to the 1992 event the last large earthquake to hit California was the 1952 Kern County Earthquake, which occurred near Wheeler Ridge on the (thought to have been inactive) White Wolf Fault, and was M7.3. After the Landers Earthquake the next closest earthquake in magnitude size was the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake at M7.1.

Even though this earthquake was rather big, it was not "The Big One." In fact, "The Big One" is expected to be M7.8-8.0.

As paleoseismology has shown this record held by the Landers Earthquake will likely be broken at some point.

2 - There Was A Lot Of Fault Involved

Rather, lot of faults were involved. The Landers Earthquake did not just rupture on one single fault-line, but rather ruptured on five separate fault-lines: Johnson Valley, Landers, Homestead Valley, Emerson, and Camp Rock Faults, according to the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC).

3 - A New San Andreas Fault Could Be Opening Up

That is the theory, at least, from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL) geologist Pat Williams. According to the LBL article that came out in August 1992:

A theory that was posed in the aftermath of last month's earthquakes was that a new San Andreas fault could be opening up from the Salton Sea north to central California. Williams says instead that the recent activity has linked the Gulf of California with slip systems east of Mount Whitney, the 1872 site of one of California's three historic magnitude 8.0 earthquakes.

Williams' theory is that the strain is heading toward the back side of the Sierras, northeast into central Nevada, where it may affect active geothermal fields. The earth's movement could enhance the production of geothermal fluids by contributing to a thinning of the crust and allowing the fluids to circulate through complex fractures.

A huge strain response on a scale never seen before occurred during the 24 hours following the Landers earthquake. At the Pinion Flats Observatory researchers from UC San Diego observed a massive redistribution of strain deep in the earth's crust. For the first time, Williams says, scientists will be able to study not just how the upper 12 kilometers of brittle crust reacts, but the response of the deep crust beneath it.

This theory is still being debated among geological and seismologists circles, and, frankly, it will probably take a few more large earthquakes to see if this theory is correct. The earth sciences is sometimes a game of wait and see.

4 - Did You Feel The Foreshock?

At the time nobody knew it was a foreshock to the Landers Earthquake, and in fact, there was concern this might have been a foreshock to a San Andreas Fault event, and that was a M6.1 foreshock that hit about 11 miles east of Desert Hot Springs on April 23, 1992. The Earth Day earthquake caused a moderate amount of property damage in the Palm Springs area. As this earthquake, called the Joshua Tree Earthquake, rolled through to Los Angeles at 9:50 p.m. a Dodgers' game was going on and Vin Scully broadcast the the rolling motion happenings at Chavez Ravine.

There was concern this could be a foreshock to a San Andreas' event, and, according to the SCEDC, "A San Andreas Hazard Level B was declared following this quake, meaning that a 5 to 25% chance existed for an even larger earthquake happening along the San Andreas fault within 3 days."

This made for some big headlines in L.A. media, but by April 29, 1992, this earthquake and the threat of the San Andreas Fault unleashing its fury would be forgotten, at least for a little while.

This foreshock had its own foreshock, a M4.6, a little over two hours earlier.

5 - Was The Big Bear Earthquake Really An Aftershock?


This was the Big Bear Earthquake broadcast live on CNN to the country and parts of the world.

The short answer, no.


This is a report of the earthquakes from KTVU-TV, Oakland/San Francisco, which includes on-air coverage from KTTV-TV as the Big Bear Earthquake shook the KTTV/Fox 11 newsroom at the now gone Metromedia Square in Hollywood.

At 8:05 a.m. on that Sunday morning a lot of people were already up and had already felt quite a few aftershocks, but one the largest, and probably most damaging, earthquake that morning was the Big Bear Earthquake. It was originally thought the M6.5 Big Bear Earthquake was simply an aftershock, and having an aftershock of that size following such a large earthquake is not unusual. However, as later research showed, the Big Bear event was not an aftershock of the Landers Earthquake. Rather, that earthquake in the San Bernardino Mountains was apart of a "regional earthquake sequence," according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

6 - Location And Magnitude

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While there was some strong shaking in the Inland Empire, L.A. area, Orange County and San Diego area, all of the violent shaking, which causes severe damage, was in mostly unpopulated areas of the San Bernardino County desert. "Shakemap" by USGS and in public domain.

Even though the Landers Earthquake was a historically large, powerful earthquake, the epicenter was seemingly in "the middle of nowhere," and damage was mostly minor-to-moderate (if you were somebody who lived near the epicenter in "the middle of nowhere" it was, no doubt, not quite a good morning). The Big Bear Earthquake a little over three hours later, and a lot less powerful than the Landers' event, was in a more populated area, and thus more damage was caused despite it only being a moderate-size earthquake. The Northridge Earthquake vividly showed that it only takes a moderate-sized earthquake in an urban area to cause major damage. So, even though an earthquake may be quite large (and scary sounding to those around the country who only hear, "A 7.3 earthquake struck the L.A. area on Sunday morning"), if it is located in a very sparsely populated area very little property damage will be found. This, too, would be visibly illustrated following the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake.

7 - The Landers Earthquake Happened One Year After The Sierra Madre Earthquake

Some people have forgotten about this earthquake, but on June 28, 1991, a M5.8 earthquake struck in the Angeles National Forest about 12 miles northeast of Pasadena in an event called, The Sierra Madre Earthquake. It is interesting and curious that some people have forgotten this event as this earthquake caused some major property damage in the Pasadena area, such as, windows shattering and brick-walls collapsing. One of this interesting things about this earthquake was for a quake of its size it had a small aftershock sequence.

No, despite these earthquakes occurring a year apart they are not related.


Friday, June 26, 2015

Six Facts About The 1925 Santa Barbara Earthquake

STATE STREET AND CABRILLO BOULEVARD IN SANTA BARBARA - Standing at the foot of Stearns Wharf looking northward turning your head left-to-right on a clear day you get a fantastic view of one of California's most famous places. The jagged rocks sticking out of the dark green mountains of the Los Padres National Forest against the bright blue sky makes for one of the best scenic backdrops in the world. Turning around behind you is the vast blue Pacific Ocean with sailboats making for a beautiful picture, but the picture perfect ocean right off Santa Barbara has a fault, or two. That is to say, there are earthquake faults off the shore of the famed city, and at least one of them were responsible for the 1925 Santa Barbara Earthquake.

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Those asking for a room with a view of the Pacific Ocean at the Hotel Californian perhaps got a little more than what they asked for. This is State Street looking north from Cabrillo Bl. In the almost upper middle-left is the Southern Pacific Depot, which still stands today. Photograph in public domain.

June 29, 2015, will be the 90th anniversary of the Santa Barbara Earthquake, which is one of California's (in)famous earthquakes. Here are six interesting facts about this earthquake.

1- Turns Out The Earthquake Was Much Stronger Than Previous Thought

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Given the shock and anxiety following the earthquake there probably was not much of a run for the product being advertised on this damaged Rexall Store on State St. Photograph in public domain.

For many decades following the Santa Barbara Earthquake it was believed this earthquake registered magnitude (M) 6.3 on the Richter Scale, which was developed by Doctor Charles Richter about ten years later at The California Institution of Technology, or, as we all know it and look to it after the earth shakes, Cal-Tech in Pasadena. The 1970s brought new developments in better understanding measuring earthquakes. One of those developments was the Moment Magnitude Scale, which is what we used to measure earthquake strength in most California earthquakes today. The Moment Magnitude Scale put the 1925 Santa Barbara Earthquake at M6.8.

2 - The 1925 Earthquake Resulted In The Only Dam Failure In The United States During an Earthquake

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The earthquake damaged Sheffield Dam. Photograph in public domain.

While the Lower Van Norman Dam had severe damage following the 1971 Sylmar Earthquake and came very close to failure (according to the California Geological Survey, had the earth shook for two more seconds in 1971 the dam would have failed flooding a large portion of the San Fernando Valley) the 1925 earthquake resulted in the only dam (so far) to fail as a result of an earthquake in the U.S. The Sheffield Dam, located at the base of the Santa Ynez Mountains at the north-northeast end of Santa Barbara, failed and flooded a good portion of the then sparsely populated eastside of Santa Barbara. According to the University of California-Santa Barbara, "a wall of water rushed between Voluntario and Alisos Streets, carrying trees, automobiles, and three houses with it, and leaving behind it a muddy, debris-strewn mess. The water filled the lower part of town up to two feet deep, until it gradually drained away into the sea." Santa Barbara was still bit of a farm town, and the water swept a lot of cows out to sea. One of the main reasons The Sheffield Dam failed was due to the fact the dam, which held 30 million gallons of water, was built on sandy soil, and sandy soil amplifies ground shaking during a moderate-to-large earthquake with typically devastating results for anything built upon it (see the aftermath of the San Francisco Marina District following the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake).

3 - Learning From 1906 Santa Barbara Avoided San Francisco's Fiery Fate

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The badly earthquake damaged Santa Barbara Mission. Photograph in public domain. 

There was a lot of significant structural damage in this 1925 earthquake, but one thing the aftermath of this earthquake lacked was fires. Many people aware of San Francisco's calamity just less than 20 years earlier realized Santa Barbara could face a similar fate. Thankfully, the overnight operators for Southern California Edison and The Southern California Gas Company immediately shut off their respective utilities to Santa Barbara to help prevent such a catastrophic disaster. Both the Santa Barbara Edison and Gas Company buildings were very badly damaged in the earthquake, but despite the damage William Engle of Edison and Henry Ketz of the Gas Company likely saved Santa Barbara from burning, and were recognized by the city for saving the city by quickly shutting the utilities down.

4 - The Way Santa Barbara Looks Today Is Due To The 1925 Earthquake

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Damage to the Grand Hotel on State St. Photograph in public domain.

Santa Barbara is often rated as one of California's, and even the world's, most beautiful places with its unique architectural style, and that is because of the 1925 earthquake. How so? Well, much of downtown Santa Barbara was destroyed in the earthquake. The Santa Barbara Community Arts Association, which was formed in the early 1920s, was commissioned to rebuild the city, and the association decided upon the Spanish Colonial Revival style, and that decision would soon make the city famous. This in turn resulted in a strict architecture city code that remains in effect to this day. Prior to the earthquake much of downtown Santa Barbara was designed in Neo-Moorish style.

5 - The Epicenter Was In The Ocean

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the earthquake occurred in the Santa Barbara Channel at 6:44 a.m., but the USGS is not too certain just what fault caused the earthquake. What the USGS does believe is this earthquake was the result of slippage on an extension of either the Mesa Fault or the Santa Ynez Fault system. Even though this earthquake had its epicenter in the ocean there was no earthquake generated tsunami (however, some landslides into the ocean caused minor tsunamis).

6 - Rumors Ran Crazy

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Isoseismal map showing how far and strong the 1925 Santa Barbara Earthquake was felt. Photograph in public domain.

Today, in the immediate aftermath of disasters rumors run crazy, especially amplified in the social media age, and, well, even though there was no social media in 1925 not much has changed since then. Following the earthquake there were rumors in Santa Barbara that Los Angeles and San Francisco had been destroyed, and that this had been the earthquake to end all earthquakes. Once telephone and telegraph service was restored, along with military ships coming up the coast to assist in security of the city, the rumors were quelled as it was quickly noted by The Morning Press, "that the earthquake was purely local." Though the earthquake was "purely local" it was felt from Santa Ana, San Bernardino to Monterey County.

6.8 - Before and After

Before the 1925 earthquake in Santa Barbara the last damaging earthquake in California was in April 1918, in the San Jacinto area with a M6.8 earthquake on the fault that shares the town's name, the San Jacinto Fault (which, by the way, happens to be the most active fault in Southern California). The last notable, damaging earthquake in the Santa Barbara area was in 1978, and that is when a M5.1 shook off the coast of Goleta. That earthquake caused a few shattered windows, knocked a lot of items over and derailed a Southern Pacific freight train.

UPDATE: A Book Coming Out Soon

Turns out the above photographs were not quite in Public Domain as Internet research would suggest, but are apart of a detailed 2010 four-part series of the 1925 earthquake by Neal Graffy in EdHat Santa Barbara, which is a highly recommended read. Furthermore, Mr. Graffy is in the process of writing a book about the earthquake, and will feature how Santa Barbara rebuilt after the shock, and the earthquake faults in and around Santa Barbara.


Sunday, May 10, 2015

Keep These Other Earthquake Preparedness Tips In Mind

STRADDLING THE WHITTIER FAULT - For those who come across this online publication that occasionally publishes articles (and should do so more often) about Southern California you know we are very fascinated by the mystery of earthquakes. As much as some of us try to pretend otherwise, earthquakes are apart of the fabric of life in Southern California as Sig-Alerts, high-rent, Disneyland and the ocean. In fact, if you are stuck in the middle of a Sig-Alert right now you may be sitting on top of an earthquake fault-line (like the Whittier Fault that cuts across The Orange Freeway above Brea).

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Major damage to Interstate 5 at Gavin Canyon near the Santa Clarita Valley following the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. Photograph by FEMA and in public domain.

Since the aftermath of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake it has been noted by more than a few people, over at the United States Geological Survey and elsewhere, that things have been a little too quiet. In the last couple years have there been regular, noticeable jolts in the Los Angeles basin. In the past few weeks there have been a few magnitude 3 earthquakes along the Newport-Inglewood Fault, and there has also been some minor shaking going on out in the Inland Empire. That, along with the recent Nepal Earthquake, which is about the size we expect "The Big One" here in Southern California to be, has quite a few people talking, and hopefully they are preparing for next big quake.

In previous posts here we have talked about myths, facts and figures about Southern California earthquakes, but let us give a thought to other forms of earthquake preparedness.

There is a lot written elsewhere about earthquake preparedness and please, please, please take the time to read the information and prepare. Here, we want to present some advice and information that sometimes gets lost in earthquake preparedness.

Much is written about what to do at home or work when Mother Nature starts quaking, but in preparing for "The Big One," or a big enough one, here are some other things to consider when you are preparing.

Getting BACK Home From Work

Much is talked about what to do in the workplace during and after an earthquake, and perhaps your place of business has an emergency plan, but what about getting home after a major earthquake. As plenty of you know commuting to work from, say, San Bernardino to Downtown L.A., is the norm in our part of the world. So, what happens if a big enough earthquake strikes in the middle of the afternoon causing major damage to The San Bernardino, Pomona and Foothill Freeways? How will you get back home? After all, think of those times when there is a major accident, a Sig-Alert, closing a freeway and how badly that backs up traffic, and the ripple affect across the entire freeway system.

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Collapsed portion of The Santa Monica Freeway at La Cienega Blvd. Used under a Creative Commons license. 

For commuters who use public transit, and for those drivers looking at public transit to get back home, it is likely Metrolink, along with the Metro light rail routes and subway, will be shut down for a time so the tracks can be inspected.

So, whether you commute from the Inland Empire to L.A., L.A. to Orange County, or Orange County to the Inland Empire (you get the idea), it is very important to think how you will get back home if there is freeway damage, along with other possible severe damage that could make it near impossible to drive back home right away.

Just as well, what if your car is damaged in the earthquake? What do you do then?

This is why it is extremely important to have an earthquake preparedness kit at work and/or in your car. Even if you live very close to where you work it is important to have a plan how to get back home.

Chances are after a major earthquake you are probably going to want to get in your car and get home to make sure everything is okay, and understandably so. However, it is best to stay where you are at for a time (if it is structurally safe, or go to an open, safe space) listen to the radio, or television if one is available, or gather information online if you can get Internet service, and get information about the earthquake. Once you understand the scope of the earthquake you can begin to plan how to get back home. There may be more of an urgency, and down right understandable panic, if you learn the epicenter is at or near where you live. Again, even if the news reports from where you live sound ominous, you must keep your safety in mind.

Depending on how severe the earthquake is it certainly is possible you may have to spend the night at the office, or you can maybe spend the night at a co-worker's home, or maybe a hotel/motel, if they are not already filled, or damaged. You may have to consider spending the night in your car.

You must also remember, power will likely be out and places where you could buy food and other such things will likely be closed or just simply inoperable. (If the goodwill of people and businesses of past disasters in America are any indication of what to expect it is possible such businesses may just handout food to those stranded, but do not count on it.)

Now, if you live close, or close enough, to work, and there is serve damage you may consider walking home.

So, with Southern California's infamously long commutes you need to think and plan how you will get home following a major earthquake.

There Is Freeway Damage. So, I'll Just Take the Side-Streets

Okay, so you have heard and seen major freeway damage, and so you may think, why not just take the side-streets back home. While a lot of people may think they can take side-streets to get back home you must keep in mind there could be a lot of obstacles in the aftermath of a major earthquake that could make driving side-streets dangerous.

The most obvious will be the power-outage affecting traffic signals, backing up traffic. Furthermore, the streets may have larges cracks in them; power-lines could be down on the streets; shattered glass and other debris may be in the streets; busted water pipes could flood the street; natural gas lines may be broken; and aftershocks could cause further damage.

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Street Damage in the San Fernando Valley following the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. Used under a Creative Commons license. 

This is why it is important to try to be calm at work and hang back at work after the shock, or where ever you may be in the middle of the day, and try to get as much information as possible about the earthquake before making a decision to drive back home.

Most news media, working along with the California Highway Patrol, Metro and other authorities, will try to get you the best information in taking alternative routes back home.

If it is safe to drive back home be prepared to spend several hours in traffic, as those commuters in the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake can attest to. Also, make sure there is gas in your car's gas tank. With power-outages and other possible damage many gas stations will likely be closed.

"DID YOU FEEL IT!?"

Even in small earthquakes a lot of people just have the call and/or text asking that question, "Did you feel it?" Chances are if it is a big enough earthquake they probably did.

Emergency planners often said back in the 1980s and 1990s, "Don't use the telephone after a big earthquake unless it's for an emergency." That remains true today, and since you likely want to contact somebody important to you after a big enough earthquake text messaging is the way to go. Communicating by text message will not use much data as opposed to making an actual telephone call, and thus will free telephone lines for emergency and important calls. As much as you may want to contact "everybody" after a major earthquake you should just send text messages to those important to you as even text messages can overload the system.

It is important to remember if there is a massive power-outage following an earthquake, and/or the cell-phone towers are damaged, you may be without telephone and data service. If you really need to get a-hold of somebody you may have to find and kindly ask to use somebody's landline telephone, or find one of those fading relics from the past, a payphone.

Even when cell-phone service does come back coverage may be spotty or non-existent at times. 

Since so many people these days, both at home and work, only have cell/smartphones the city of L.A. recently introduced legislation to retrofit cell-phone towers. This legislation is the first of its kind in the nation.

When To Call 911 or Other Authorities

Even in small earthquakes 911 centers quickly fill with calls. Most, if not all in those calls, are frivolous and tie up the emergency lines. Even in major earthquakes 911 dispatchers are inundated with frivolous calls. In fact, dig around YouTube and you will find audio of such calls following a major earthquake.

Always call 911 if it is a life-threatening emergency. Do not call 911 to ask for information or ask about rumors. It is also best NOT to call 911 if windows on a building are shattered and nobody is hurt. Of course, and please, do check and see to make sure everybody in the home and/or business where the shattered windows occurred are okay. There have been many cases where the 911 system is tied up by people reporting broken windows, but nobody is hurt.

If there is a fire, collapsed building, collapsed freeway, or something that looks to be a threat to public safety and there are no emergency workers on the scene that is when it is best to call 911. When you must call 911 try to give as much detailed information as possible.

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Collapsed apartment building following the 1994 earthquake. Used under a Creative Commons license.

A note about calling the non-emergency dispatch line for certain kinds of information. Before calling a police or fire non-emergency dispatch number make sure the information you seek is already available in the media or social media. Non-emergency dispatchers will likely be doing double duty as 911 dispatchers.

Where Are The Emergency Responders?

If you call 911 for an emergency you may hear the dispatcher say, "We'll get somebody out there as soon as we can," and soon discover it is taking quite awhile for emergency responders to arrive. Emergency planners and organizations across Southern California have stressed that in the aftermath of a major earthquake emergency responders are not going to be able to get to every emergency right away. For many years we have been used to, and down right accustomed to, emergency responders arriving quickly during major emergencies, like brush fires. In the aftermath of a major earthquake it may take awhile for emergency responders to respond to a major emergency.

How You Can Help

This is where you can help. Well before the big quake you should consider participating in your local Community Emergency Response Team (CERT). CERT, according to FEMA, "educates people about disaster preparedness for hazards that may impact their area and trains them in basic disaster response skills, such as fire safety, light search and rescue, team organization, and disaster medical operations."

In the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake this is one way you can help your community, and how you can slowly rebuild and try to get things back to normal in your neighborhood.

Don't Forget The Toilet!

As the 2014 La Habra Earthquake showed, it does not take much big shaking for water pipes to be shaken loose and burst. Even when the ground is stable it seems pipes easily burst, as evident of pipes bursting around L.A. in the past several years. A lot of pipes are expected to burst during the next big earthquake, and that may leave you without plumbing, and thus no toilet to flush. So, what can you do to prepare if your plumbing breaks during an earthquake?

Put some plastic trash bags aside in your emergency preparedness kit, and use those.

How to use plastic bags as makeshift toilets? Line the plastic bag along the toilet seat, kind of like you do with the trash can, and there you have a makeshift toilet, which you can later, when needed, move the waste into the trash can.

Social Media

During major news events social media has played an extraordinarily important role in getting information out to people from officials very quickly. At the same time, during major news events, a lot of misinformation has been quickly spread on social media. Most of the time this is information is quickly corrected by officials and/or news media. Of course, there are people on social media who pass false information for the sake of simply doing so, and, on Twitter, it gets retweeted dozens of times. In the aftermath of a major quake such false reports could quickly spread undue panic in an already tense situation (false social media reports have already done just that in past disasters).

If somebody on social media is claiming something major is happening, like, for example, a freeway has collapsed or lots of fires are burning, instead of retweeting it try to send that information to the fire or police/sheriff's department and news media's social media account to see if they can verify it. The bottom line, make sure the information you are reading on social media is correct before sharing it.

This is all assuming you can get back on the Internet after a major earthquake. "The Big One" may very well cause major Internet disruptions that will be a real shock for a lot of people accustomed to always having the Internet available at their fingertips.

Check Your Insurance

Before the next big earthquake, or other disaster, now is the time to check your insurance policy to make sure and confirm what covers what when all goes wrong.

It is very important to understand earthquake insurance is only offered through a state agency, the California Earthquake Authority, and flood insurance is offered through the federal government.

Unfortunately, in the aftermath of disasters we read way too many stories in the news how insurance will not cover certain things for a certain reason.

Earlier we mentioned about your car being possibly damaged in an earthquake. See if an earthquake damaged car is covered by your auto insurance. Some auto insurance companies have "Acts of God" clauses in them, which may, or may not, cover your vehicle should it be damaged or destroyed in an earthquake.

It may be a complicated pain to deal with insurance organizations and their tons of paperwork in that sometimes complicated legal language, but now is the time to go over your policy. Furthermore, now is the time to think, talk over and decide if you need different insurance coverage.

Getting Back To Work

At the top of this list we talked about what plans you should make getting back home from work following a big earthquake. As the aftershocks diminish life will slowly get back to normal, and part of that is getting back to work, but with collapsed freeways that may prove tricky.

Those who remember the 1994 earthquake remember some very long commutes. Even though there was an urgent surge in retrofitting freeways following the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge Earthquakes, in the next major earthquake Southern California emergency planners expect some major freeway damage.

If the Internet is back up and operating as normal you may be able to work from home, depending on what you do. However, if you have to make the commute, well, you may want to think about public transit.

The then fledgling Metrolink received a big, unexpected boost following the 1994 earthquake, and expanded well ahead of schedule.

Now if your place of employment was damaged or destroyed in the earthquake you may have Disaster Unemployment Assistance available to you through the state's Employment Development Department.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is this, the next major earthquake is going to cause a serious or outright major disruption for us, and it may very well change our way of life for a time (just think, the Internet may not be available at your fingertips). However, do understand, and it sounds like a cliché, the better we prepare, the better we will get through this.


Friday, April 17, 2015

A Shaky Myth

ANAHEIM - Over the last few weeks there have been some minor earthquakes in the Los Angeles area. These minor shakers have wiggled the ground just enough to get a lot of people's attention, and making a lot of people wonder what all this shaking may be about. On Sunday, April 12, there was a magnitude (M) 3.3 shaker in the West L.A. area that appears to be on the Newport-Inglewood Fault, on Wednesday, April 15, there was a M3.1 in the Sylmar area, and on Saturday, April 2, there were several minor earthquakes in the Newhall Pass area with the largest quake being M3.2.

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Kinemetrics seismograph used by United States Department of the Interior. Photograph used under Creative Commons license.

If you grew up in Southern California, or even Japan, or really anywhere in the world that is considered "earthquake country," you probably have heard immense myths about earthquakes.

Is There Anything To These Earthquake Myths?

The short answer: NO! We all want an answer to the unknowable, especially if it is something that can greatly impact our lives and, frankly, our way of life, within just a few seconds, but at this time there is no scientific data and proof to accurately and precisely predict when a big earthquake will occur. With decades filled with tons of scientific studies, myths about earthquakes have been proven to be just that, myths.

Dolphins and Whales On The Beach

In recent weeks there has been a story floating around that several beached dolphins off the coast of Japan means a big earthquake is going to happen, because this happened once before off the Japan coast days before the great 2011 Japan earthquake. Furthermore, this, the sudden beaching of dolphins and whales, has also happened before large earthquakes in New Zealand and Chile.

Well, the beaching of dolphins and whales has happened in many other places many times before, and there has been no large earthquake in the following days. Thus, there has been no conclusive evidence that beaching of these great sea animals mean a big earthquake is imminent.

Full Moon Pulling The Gravity

Another very common myth is large earthquakes occur when there is a full Moon due to the Moon's gravity pull on earth. Well, out of all these earthquake myths this one has some truth to it as scientists at the United States Geological Survey have, "found a correlation between earth tides (caused by the position of the moon relative to the earth) and some types of earthquakes."

However, please understand that earthquakes can and do happen whether or not the Moon is shining bright in the sky, and thus the Moon is NOT a viable way to predict earthquakes.

Big Shakes Only In The Morning

If you grew up in Southern California you probably remember all too well that our most "memorable" earthquakes occurred early in the morning, which has lead a lot of people to believe only big earthquakes will only happen in the morning. This is a very big myth. The fact that major earthquakes have occurred in Southern California in the morning hours is simply a roll of the dice when Mother Nature has decided to give us a big shake. That is a way of saying it simply is by pure chance that large earthquakes have happened in the morning and there is no scientific proof that significant earthquakes occur in Southern California only in the morning hours. In fact, the 1933 Long Beach Earthquake happened at 5:55 p.m. Bottom line, "The Big One," or the next big enough one, can happen at 4:31 in the morning, or 4:31 in the afternoon.

Earthquake Weather

Probably one of the biggest myths in Southern California is so-called "earthquake weather." The common belief in Southern California is when it suddenly warms up earthquakes will happen. Well, many studies have shown when the earth decides to shake it gives no thought to the weather. After all, there have been major earthquakes in Southern California on Christmas Day and in the middle of summer.

Animals Know When An Earthquake Is About To Happen

Many people have said that right before an earthquake their pet, typically a dog or cat, "acted weird" or suddenly began running about without any reason. In most cases what animals are sensing are the P-Waves of an earthquake, which can be detected by sensitive animals, and sometimes sensitive humans. There have been cases where people report animals acting "weird" a few days before an earthquake. Plenty of studies have been done on this subject, and studies in China in the 1970s thought there might have been a breakthrough with animals helping predict earthquakes. Well, like many studies of possible earthquake precursors and predictions, observing animals has proven to be inconclusive, and thus animals cannot predict earthquakes.

What About Earthquakes Being Predicted To Happen In 20 Years

When geologists and seismologists talk about an earthquake happening either in a certain region or on a certain earthquake fault-line what they are doing is forecasting, not predicting. The words forecast and prediction are sometimes used interchangeably, but they have very different meanings when it comes to seismology. When it comes to earthquakes seismologists, for example, look at the history of a fault-line and how often it has produced a major earthquake, otherwise called paleoseismology. If, for example, a fault-line has produced a major earthquake on average every 100 years and it has been 70 years since the said fault-line last rupture seismologists will forecast the fault-line will produce a major earthquake within the next 30 years. Ostensibly, using our example, if it has been, say, 120 years since the last major earthquake on said fault-line you will hear that we are overdue for a major earthquake.

Caution In Earthquake Forecasting

While paleoseismology has been one of the best breakthroughs in figuring out how often a certain fault-line ruptures it must be stressed that while the average rupture may be, for example, every 100 years, it has also showed what could be best described as anomalies. That is to say even though the fault-line is suppose to cause a major earthquake on average around every 100 years sometimes, as paleoseismology shows, the said fault-line may of had a period in the past where it did not have a major earthquake for 200 or even 300 years.

On the other end, paleoseismology has showed major earthquakes on the studied fault-line, using our example, have occurred less than 100 years apart.

Think of it this way, you know how on the seven-day weather forecast on the seventh day they say a major storm is coming based on all the information on the way the storm pattern is shaping up, and come that seventh day the storm is nowhere to be found and it is very sunny outside. Well, long-term earthquake forecasting is kind of like long-term weather forecasting. Everything is lined up and based on all evidence it looks like an event should happened and thus is forecast to happen, like a big rain storm or big earthquake, but it just fails to happen.

Will There Ever Be Day Where We Can Predict Earthquakes?

Well, never say "never," but in general when it comes to earthquake prediction the geologist and seismologist community has kind of moved on to long-range earthquake forecasting, such as more paleoseismology studies, and developing and funding earthquake early warning systems.

It is very important to understand that the study of earthquakes is an extraordinarily young science and even when major earthquakes have occurred scientists have learned something new. After all, it was the 1994 Northridge Earthquake that showed how dangerous blind thrust faults are to the L.A. area and gave way to more studies of such faults like, The Puente Hills Thrust Fault.

Even though the earth science community in general is moving away from precise earthquake prediction please have no fear, because many professional, retired, government, amateur and wanna-be geologists and seismologists are still looking for that Holy Grail of trying to solve that puzzle of accurately predicting earthquakes.

So, The Bottom Line Is The One Thing Nobody Wants To Hear...

Even with all the marvelous advances in technology there is still no accurate way to predict when precisely a major earthquake will occur. It could happen one minute from now, or another 20 years, or even another 100 years from today. All you can do is prepare.

Friday, March 6, 2015

Five Odd Southern California Earthquake Facts

HOLLYWOOD - Looking up Vine Street from Hollywood Boulevard the sudden rise of the street just above Yucca St. on the hill where The Hollywood Freeway lays atop shows the not so subtle signs of The Hollywood Fault, which has been in the news lately. Recent mapping by the California Geological Survey shows the fault is what helps give Hollywood and Los Feliz its character with its hills, and while the beauty is nice some developers are none too happy with this study.

When The Hollywood Fault, or any Southern California fault, will rupture with fury again is not clear as there are no accurate ways to predict earthquakes (not to be confused with forecasting earthquakes).

Walking over and along The Hollywood Fault on Los Feliz Blvd. one wonders about earthquakes past, and thus this piece is not about unhappy developers not getting their way, or even so much The Hollywood Fault, but rather five odd, peculiar Southern California earthquake facts.

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Severe freeway damage following the 1971 Sylmar Earthquake. Used under a Creative Commons license.

1 - The First Earthquake on Record

For thousands and thousands of years earthquakes, both very small and very large, have been happening in Southern California, as paleoseismology has proven, but while there were many animals and trees to feel the shaking as hills and mountains were being pushed up there were hardly many humans around. Any humans that were around never kept anything written about it, or hid their diary.

It would not be until 1769 that the first earthquake in Southern California would be recorded. Gaspar de Portola, Father Juan Crespí and a group of over 60 explorers from Spain, in the name to extend Spain's control up the Pacific Coast and establish colonies and missions (and hopefully prevent Russia and England from acquiring and taking this territory), set out from San Diego to Monterey on July 14, 1769. Maps at the time available to de Portola's group showed California extending from San Diego only to the Monterey Bay.

 photo Map_of_California_as_an_island_R.W._Seale_1745.jpg
When California was still thought of as an island in this 1745 map of California, and so not unusual to think de Portola's group thought the soon-to-be Golden State went as far as Monterey. Used under Creative Commons license.

After about a couple weeks of walking from San Diego to current day Orange County on July 28, 1769 and setting up camp at what is now The Santa Ana River in Anaheim de Portola's group felt a very large earthquake.

This earthquake occurred around 4 p.m., and the explorers recorded many aftershocks, several of them strong, as they made their way into the San Gabriel Valley. Records kept by de Portola's group show they stopped feeling any earthquakes when they were exiting the San Fernando Valley.

Among geologists, seismologists and historians there is much debate on just how big this earthquake was and just where the epicenter was located. Given the records by the de Portola team it was believed by many in the science and historic communities this earthquake was around magnitude 6.0 and probably on The San Jacinto Fault in the Inland Empire. Part of this was based on the diaries of the de Portola team saying they felt no more earthquakes once exiting the San Fernando Valley.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) officially lists this earthquake, the very first earthquake in a long, forever growing list of Southern California earthquakes cataloged by the USGS, as M6.0 in the Los Angeles Basin. 

The when and where of this first recorded Southern California earthquake by the USGS has been challenged by University of California-Irvine geology professor Lisa Grant. Ms. Grant has proposed that the 1769 earthquake was actually M7.3 located on the relatively unknown San Joaquin Hills Fault located between Newport Beach and Laguna Beach, which resulted in the Orange County coastline being raised by almost 11 feet.


Put together by The Southern California Earthquake Center here is a scenario of a M6.7 earthquake on The San Joaquin Hills Fault.

The video above, combined with the diaries kept by the de Portola team, shows the theory by the UCI professor to be possible as strong shaking wanes in The San Fernando Valley. One thing the debate of the 1769 earthquake has brought up is the fact that Orange County has a major earthquake fault line that is not really well known, which has brought on more studies of the fault.

The when and where of this very first recorded Southern California earthquake still fascinates geologists and seismologists. Among other reasons, figuring out the mystery of this earthquake may help further understand and clarify the nature of earthquakes in Southern California (like the existence of a major earthquake fault in Orange County).

2 - Last Large Earthquake on Record

The last large earthquake in Southern California was a M7.9 in 1857, which is commonly called The Fort Tejon Earthquake. Not only was this the largest earthquake in Southern California recorded history, but this was one the largest earthquakes ever recorded in the United States.

This was also the last time The San Andreas Fault had a major rupture in Southern California. The infamous fault line is believed to have ruptured near Parkfield and continued rupturing south to just near The Cajon Pass. In fact, this was the last time "The Big One" happened in Southern California.

Southern California was nowhere near the megalopolis it is today, and so damage was limited to scars in the Earth. There were many scares in the Earth with cracks reported in the San Gabriel Valley and in the San Bernardino area.

In some areas the shaking is believed to have lasted up to, and even over three minutes. In Downtown L.A. the shaking is believed to have lasted over a minute.

Both the USGS and disaster planners fear the impact a repeat of this earthquake would have today.

The last time the lower southern segment of the San Andreas Fault between San Bernardino to the Salton Sea ruptured is believed to have been in or around 1690.

3 - Deadliest Earthquake Ever

The earthquake was only M6.4, but the deadliest earthquake in Southern California was the March 1933 Long Beach Earthquake, which killed 120 people. Much of the death was due to the brick construction of many buildings in Long Beach and Compton.

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Compton in the aftermath of the 1933 earthquake. The fallen bricks are what killed many people in this earthquake. Used under a Creative Commons license.

Many schools were badly damaged, but luckily school was out when the earthquake struck at 5:55 p.m. (which should break the myth that big earthquakes only happen in the morning). Had this earthquake occurred just a few hours earlier the death toll would have been much higher with many school children killed.

This thought disturbed and worried a lot of people, and very quickly in April 1933 the state passed The Field Act that mandated earthquake resistant construction for schools.

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Jefferson Junior High School in Long Beach after the quake. Damage to schools like this throughout the area and what could have been worried parents, teachers and students alike, which led to the passage of The Field Act. Used under a Creative Commons license.

In the 1971 Sylmar Earthquake schools built after The Field Act made it through with no damage while schools built before 1933 suffered major damage.


A newsreel showing the aftermath of the 1933 earthquake.

4 - The 1933 Epicenter Was NOT in Long Beach

The deadly jolt in 1933 will forever be known as The Long Beach Earthquake, but the epicenter was not in Long Beach. Rather, the epicenter was in Newport Beach on The Newport-Inglewood Fault.

While the damage was bad in Long Beach t
he earthquake ended up being the most damaging and deadliest earthquake in Orange County history. Most of the death and destruction was in Santa Ana. However there was also major damage in Garden Grove and Anaheim.

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Very badly damaged building in Santa Ana. Used under Creative Commons license.

Damage was so bad in downtown Santa Ana that the Santa Ana Register, which was located in downtown Santa Ana, put together their newspaper working outside of their damaged building.
 

Of course this would not be the first time an epicenter would be misidentified. The Sylmar Earthquake was not in Sylmar, but the hills above Sylmar. The Northridge Earthquake was not in Northridge, but in Reseda.

5 - The Christmas Day Earthquake

If you were asleep on Christmas morning in 1899 and felt the house shake you may have thought it was Santa Claus stuck in your chimney trying to wiggle his way out. It was not Santa, but Mother Nature showing that even big earthquakes do not get the holiday off.

At 4:25 a.m. a M6.5 earthquake stuck near San Jacinto on the fault of the same name, The San Jacinto Fault.

This earthquake was felt in a very wide area waking people up in Los Angeles, San Diego and as far as Santa Barbara.

Damage was greatest in San Jacinto and Hemet with many collapsed buildings. In Riverside many chimneys were knocked down and cracks in many buildings appeared. In fact, throughout much of the then sparsely populated Inland Empire the damage reports were much the same along with shattered windows.

The earthquake was deadly at the nearby Soboba Indian Reservation, where six people were killed by falling adobe walls.

In the Earth sciences community there is a little bit of debate if whether this earthquake was larger than M6.5 and just where exactly the epicenter was located. The Southern California Earthquake Center believes the epicenter may have been ten miles south of San Jacinto.

In the end, whether an earthquake hits on Christmas morning or during an imperialistic exploration journey, it is extraordinarily important to be prepared for the next big earthquake.


Monday, February 9, 2015

Six Interesting Facts About the 1971 Sylmar Earthquake

SYLMAR - It seemed from summer 1965 until 1971 it was a chaotic time in Southern California. There were the Watts Riots, the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy at The Ambassador Hotel, Charles Manson, the Chicano Moratorium in East Los Angeles, the ongoing destruction of the original Bunker Hill, the Sunset Strip curfew riots, George Putnam not sure if he wants to work at KTLA or KTTV, massive brush fires, and of course, seemingly to top it all off, the Earth shaking below our feet.


 photo CAoverpass1971.jpg
Collapse of I-5 overpass. A similar scene would be repeated in 1994. Author unknown; photograph in public domain. 

It was on February 9, 1971, when an earthquake fault not believed to have been a threat unleashed one of the worst damaging earthquakes in modern Southern California, in what became known as The Sylmar Earthquake.


A film by The President's Office of Emergency Preparedness along with The Defense Civil Preparedness Agency, complete with early 1970s PSA dramatic music, on the 1971 earthquake.

Here are six interesting facts about The Sylmar Earthquake you may never have known about.

1 - The 1971 Earthquake Is Holding Up New Development In Hollywood

If you have been following the news concerning new proposed developments of residential and commercial high-rise buildings around the Capital Records building in Hollywood, known as the Millennium Hollywood project, you know the proposed developments are now delayed and ensnared in controversy, because of where The Hollywood Fault may or may not be, and that delay is a result of the 1971 earthquake.

How so?

The Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act is causing the holdup and controversy in Hollywood. The Alquist-Priolo Act, according to the California Geological Survey, "is to prevent the construction of buildings used for human occupancy on the surface trace of active faults."

Alquist-Priolo came to be a state law as a result of the 1971 earthquake. The 1971 earthquake showed the destructive power of extensive surface fault ruptures, which damaged many homes and buildings right atop or very near the fault-line. Lawmakers in Sacramento realized this sort of thing will be a problem in the next major earthquake with many buildings already built on or very near faults, and thus a law was created to prevent new construction on and very near earthquake fault-lines. The law also requires real estate agents to inform potential building owners that property they may be thinking of buying is built on or very near a fault-line

 photo Sylmar-1971-house-e1385170660874.jpg
As dramatically illustrated in this damaged Sylmar home this is what happens when a building is built on the surface trace of an active fault after that fault ruptures. Photograph by USGS; in public domain.

Today in Hollywood private developers, the City of Los Angeles, the California Geological Survey, private geologists hired by the developers and Hollywood residents opposed to this new development, are all trying to say just where The Hollywood Fault is located. If The Hollywood Fault lays atop one of these proposed projects, as new studies show it just may be, then The Alquist-Priolo Act could prevent a new building in Hollywood from being built.

Not too long ago the California Geological Survey introduced new mapping of The Hollywood Fault. 

2 - Two Seconds Made All The Difference

The 1971 earthquake was a massive disaster resulting in collapsed freeways, destroyed homes, and way too many ruined lives. Yet, according to geologists, this disaster was only seconds away from being a really bad disaster to a historic catastrophic disaster.

One of the big stories resulting from the earthquake was the massive evacuation of 80,000 people when the lower Van Norman Dam sustained major damage. With large aftershocks occurring, including a magnitude 5.8 shortly after the mainshock, there was great fear the dam would collapse. So a mass evacuation was underway as engineers, working nearly nonstop, were able to drain part of the dam and save the day.

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Severe damage of the lower Van Norman Dam following the earthquake that came perilous close to flooding part of The Valley. Photograph by USGS; in public domain.

Just how close did the Van Norman Dan come to collapsing? According to California Geology, April/May 1971, "Had shaking of the endangered reservoirs continued for 2 seconds more, it has been estimated that there would have been no time to evacuate those below."

Had the shaking gone on for those two seconds more a UCLA study claimed thousands could have been killed if the Van Norman Dam failed.

As a result of this near catastrophic event all dams in California were reevaluated and retrofitted.

The retrofitting did its job as in the Northridge Earthquake the Van Norman Dam had no serious damage.

3 - The Epicenter Was NOT in Sylmar And The Actual Size Of The Quake Really Was...?

While this event that morning in 1971 will forever be known as The Sylmar Earthquake the actual epicenter was in the San Gabriel Mountains above The Valley. Much of the spectacular and devastating damage was in the Sylmar area and "The Sylmar Earthquake" was a name the media latched onto. Much of the same happened in 1994 when it was revealed the actual epicenter was in Reseda rather than Northridge.

 photo Earthquake_Documentary_1973_Crushed_Chevy-500x335.jpg
A powerful photograph showing the destructive, deadly force of Mother Nature. This is believed to be the I-210/I-5 interchange, and, sadly, those in Chevrolet did not survive. Author unknown; photograph in public domain.

As for the the actual size of the earthquake, well, the United States Geological Survey puts the magnitude of this earthquake at M6.6, which for all intents and purposes has been deemed the "official magnitude" of The Sylmar Earthquake. However, other institutions, such as universities and geological groups from other countries, have put this earthquake as low as M6.5, and as high as M6.7.

4 - The Charles Manson Trial Continued Just Hours After the Earthquake

On January 27. 1971, in downtown L.A. the jury in the Charles Manson trial returned verdicts of "Guilty" for Mr. Manson and three "family members" for the Tate-LaBianca murders. A few days later the penalty phase commenced, which the jury, who had been sequestered during the trial at The Ambassador Hotel, would decide if Mr. Manson and "the family members" would receive life imprisonment or the death penalty. 

On the morning the Earth shook lead prosecutor Vincent Bugliosi, as told in his bestseller book about the trial, Helter Skelter, thought members of "the family" were trying to break into his house with all the shaking and noise going on. That was not an unfounded fear as Mr. Bugliosi, the judge overseeing the trial and many other people involved in The Manson Trial received death threats, and soon had 24-hour protection during the trial.

Schools were closed for the day, as were other businesses (some of that was probably due to the fact dozens of schools and homes were severely damaged), but amazingly, and curiously, for The Manson Trial it was business as usual. What is most amazing about this is the trial was held at the historical Los Angeles County Hall of Justice building, which was deemed unsafe and essentially abandoned immediately right after the 1994 Northridge Earthquake.

 photo Hall_of_Justice_ca1939.jpg
While not a 1971 view of the L.A. County Hall of Justice this photograph, circa 1940, was too good to pass up. Author unknown; photograph in public domain.

The Hall of Justice has been undergoing rehabilitation for a few years, and it is expected to be brought back into service in all its glory in 2015.

5 - A Record We Hope Is Never Broken

One grim statistic of the 1971 earthquake we hope is never broken in the next major Southern California earthquake (yes, there will be a next time) is this, The Sylmar Earthquake had more deaths than the Northridge Earthquake. Thus making it the deadest earthquake in modern L.A. history.

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USGS_-_1971_San_Fernando_earthquake_-_Collapse_of_four_buildings_at_the_Veterans_Hospital.jpg
USGS photograph of collapse of San Fernando Veterans Administration Hospital where the majority of earthquake deaths occurred. Photograph in public domain.

The deadliest earthquake in Southern California history was the 1933 Long Beach Earthquake (which actually had an epicenter in Newport Beach).

6 - David Horowitz and Tom Brokaw Were The Lone TV Voices After the Shock

During the shaking power was knocked out, and the sun was not quite out yet, which, like the Northridge Earthquake, brought much of the L.A. Basin into utter darkness. Realizing a major event had just happened, and perhaps being a bit close to the epicenter in Burbank, KNBC reporter David Horowitz (known for his Fight Back segments, and not to be confused with a political pundit of the same name) went outside the darken NBC Studios on Alameda Avenue, and sitting on nothing more than a bar-stool he just began talking about the earthquake to those viewers who's power had not been knocked out (or those watching with those big, bulky portable televisions powered by a half-dozen batteries). Being in a darken lot made for dramatic live television. Joining Mr. Horowitz shortly after he went on the air in that darken Burbank lot was then local KNBC reporter Tom Brokaw. For a time after the earthquake Mr. Horowitz and Mr. Brokaw were providing the only live television coverage of the earthquake.


Mr. Horowitz and Mr. Brokaw attributed much of their early reporting to news reports from radio stations, KFWB, KGIL and KNX.

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The cover of a LP put out by KGIL, which on 1260 AM was The Valley's radio station, which featured various airchecks of their earthquake coverage on February 9. The album is in limited press and is considered a collectors item.

As odd as it may seem today given the current nature of L.A. television news (where the slightest raindrop brings on "STORM WATCH TEAM COVERAGE"), KNBC and soon thereafter KTLA, which pioneered local breaking news coverage, were really the only local television stations that had continuous coverage of the earthquake. As the Los Angeles Times noted, KNXT and KABC had intermittent updates throughout the morning, and Ralph Story carried on with his morning show as usual only mentioning the earthquake here and there. The Times also wondered where KHJ-TV, KTTV and KCOP news coverage was during this "Day of Disaster" (as the Times' banner front-page headline ran the following day) as they carried on with their usual fare of morning cartoons all while seemingly ignoring one of the biggest disasters in modern L.A. history.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Those Southern California Earthquakes

CAJON PASS - ONE PLACE WHERE THE PACIFIC PLATE AND NORTH AMERICAN PLATE MEET - Even if you are not the biggest newshound you know Worldwide 2014 was not a very good year, but in our place of the World known as Southern California it sure seemed like things were shaking more than usual.


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One of the many places in Southern California where the infamous San Andreas Fault runs. Shown for educational purposes only; no copyright infringement intended. Used under a Creative Commons license.

In 2014 several widely "feel-able" minor-to-moderate earthquakes rattled the Los Angeles Basin. The most notable earthquake was the magnitude 5.1 (M5.1) La Habra Earthquake, which was the most damaging earthquake in the area since 2008.

In fact, things have been relatively quiet since the aftermath of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, but in the last year it seems like things, seismically speaking, have been picking up.

So what gives? Well, as many geologists and seismologists at the United States Geological Survey note, such as "L.A. Earthquake Czar" Doctor Lucy Jones, things are just getting back to normal. In fact, having M4 and M5 earthquakes in Southern California is the normal way of life and we should be having a few them yearly. The problem for some people is that within the 20 years since the Northridge Earthquake many people have moved to Southern California, or been born in the last 20 years and may never had known of a time when these types of earthquakes rattled Southern California on a regular basis (of course they are many others who have been here well beyond 20 years and probably choose to forget we live in earthquake country).

Wait, These Types of Earthquakes Used To Happen All The Time?

Yes, and, by way of The Southern California Earthquake Data Center, here is a list of notable Southern California earthquakes between 1986 and 1994.

July 8, 1986 - North Palm Springs - M5.6
July 13, 1986 - About 32 miles West-Northwest offshore of Oceanside - M5.4
October 1, 1987 - Whittier Earthquake - M5.9
November 23, 1987 - Near Salton Sea and about 90 miles east of San Diego - M6.2
November 24, 1987 - About the same location as above - M6.6
June 26, 1988 - Upland - M4.7
December 3, 1988 - Pasadena - M5.0
January 18, 1989 - Malibu - M5.0
April 7, 1989 - Newport Beach - M4.7
June 12, 1989 - Montebello - M4.9
February 28, 1990 - Upland - M5.4
June 28, 1991 - Sierra Madre - M5.8
April 22, 1992 - Joshua Tree - M6.1
June 28, 1992 - Landers Earthquake - M7.3
June 28, 1992 - Big Bear - M6.4
January 17, 1994 - Northridge Earthquake - M6.7
   
What Happened After 1994?

Well, while there were the always ongoing minor M1-M3 jolts in the region and some M4 earthquakes just outside the area in the desert, along with a series of M5 earthquakes in rural Kern County in 1995-96 (some of which were felt in the L.A. area), notable earthquakes in and around the L.A. basin and Southern California in the aftermath of the Northridge Earthquake had became far, few and in-between.

In fact, outside of large Northridge aftershocks, which mostly faded by 1995, the next noteworthy earthquake would be the 2001 M4.2 West Hollywood Earthquake.

Furthermore, while there was a M5.4 in Big Bear in 2003 it would not be until 2008 that the L.A. basin would experience a damaging M5+ quake, the 2008 M5.4 Chino Hills Earthquake. That is about 14 years since a M5+ earthquake struck the L.A. area.

It is noteworthy to point out on October 16, 1999 in the rural San Bernardino County desert there was a M7.1 earthquake that shook most of Southern California, known as the Hector Mine Earthquake. This earthquake had an epicenter in such a rural area there was very little damage, but it did cause power outages in the Inland Empire, L.A. and Orange County. Despite such a significant earthquake it has been mostly forgotten.
  
Why Did The Lull In Earthquakes Happen?

Simply put, geologists and seismologists believe the Landers and Northridge Earthquakes relieved stress for a time on the fault-lines in Southern California.

In geological time 20 years is less than a blink of an eye.

So, Are We Coming Out of The Earthquake Lull?

Earthquakes in the last couple years would seem to say, "yes," and, much more importantly, in many interviews with the media after some of these shakers Dr. Jones believes we are going back to our normal pattern of earthquakes.

Does This Mean The Big One (Or A Big Enough One) Is Going To Happen?

Who knows?

It could mean something, or it could mean nothing, which is a way of saying there is no way to predict earthquakes.

Or, put another way, a damaging earthquake could happen tomorrow night, or ten years from now.

We Keep Hearing About The Threat of A Big Earthquake Happening, But Will It Ever Really Happen, Or Is It Just Hype?

Recent Southern California earthquake data listed above, along with historic earthquake data and studies going back hundreds of years show that a really big earthquake, or big enough earthquake to cause damage, will hit Southern California again, and again, and again, at some point.

What is most important to understand is Southern California, and much of California for that matter, sits atop two tectonic plate boundaries, the Pacific Plate and North American Plate. Those two plate boundaries in our part of the World create what is known as a transform boundary where the two plates slide past each other.
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Image of plate tectonics by USGS via Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons License.

In California the San Andreas Fault forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and, simply put, as these boundaries slide past each other many times they become stuck, pressure builds up and you have an earthquake.

Will The Plates Ever Stop Moving Against Each Other So We Can Stop Having Earthquakes?

Nope!

As long as the World is spinning the plates will keep moving, and thus Southern California will continue to always have earthquakes big and small.

When Was The Last Great Big Earthquake in Southern California?

While there certainly have been many "big enough earthquakes" in our lifetime the last great big earthquake in Southern California was in 1857, commonly called The Fort Tejon Earthquake.

This earthquake was on the San Andreas Fault, which many in the Earth science community believe the infamous fault ruptured from the Parkfield area southward to the Cajon Pass. One reason that lead to this belief is the surface rupture along the fault was about 230 miles.

This earthquake is believed to have been M7.9, one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded in North America, but California was a very sparsely populated place, and so damage and casualties were very limited.

It is believed shaking in Southern California lasted up to three minutes.

A similar earthquake today would profoundly impact Southern California with damage and economic loss going easily into the billions of dollars, according to SCEDC

What About The Other Section of The San Andreas Fault?

There is another section of The San Andreas Fault that runs through Southern California, and that section runs between San Bernardino to the fault's terminus in the Salton Sea.

Recent studies have shown the last time this section ruptured was in or around 1690.

For some geologists and seismologists it is this section of The San Andreas Fault they believe will bring us the dreaded Big One.


Video developed by Dr. Robert Graves of the USGS showing a simulation of a major southern San Andreas Fault earthquake. No copyright infringement intended; shown for educational purposes only. 
 
Just Be Prepared!

All you can do is prepare and be prepared

There is no way at this time to predict earthquakes. The only earthquakes that can be predicted are aftershocks.

Making The Best of The Faults Below Our Feet 

One way to make the best of all these fault-lines around us is to enjoy the natural beauty they have produced. After all, what gives Southern California its dramatic mountains and hills are earthquakes, and if we did not have earthquakes we would probably be as flat as Kansas.